Uncertainty is the defining challenge of our time, and Event Horizon provides organizations with the tools to reduce, manage, and leverage it.
The economist Frank Knight argued that “uncertainty” is best understood in contrast with “risk.”
Businesses are best suited to dealing with risk—familiar situations in which it is possible to calculate the probability of particular futures.
But, in situations of uncertainty, the inadequacy of past experience makes that impossible.
Often, we cannot even imagine all potential outcomes. We face what Harvard professor Richard Zeckhauser has called “ignorance,” which leaves us vulnerable to surprise.
Event Horizon uses the tools of strategic foresight to move organizations along this continuum—away from the ignorance of potential surprises, through uncertainty by defining plausible futures, and toward quantifiable and manageable risk—helping them thrive no matter what the future holds.