Publications

Learning From the Future

“The pandemic has dramatically changed the world we know. Here’s how leaders can chart a course for their organizations and guide their teams through tumultuous times.”

Fumbling the Crystal Ball: Policymakers Can’t Afford to Spurn the Science of Prediction

The Russian nuclear threat, explained

Opinion: How to assess the risk of nuclear war without freaking out

We can’t prevent tomorrow’s catastrophes unless we imagine them today

Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA’s Office of National Estimates

Seeing So Much of the Present through Watergate Makes it Harder to See the future

We Didn’t See Donald Trump Coming. But We Could Have

The Power of Precise Predictions